Found September 24, 2012 on Just Cover Blog:
2010_afcnfc_pro_ae95

Let’s get right to the nitty gritty tonight. This will be a great Monday Night Football game. The east coasters will get a chance to see just how good — and they’re pretty good – the Seahawks are while the world gets another chance to marvel at Aaron Rodgers. Don’t be surprised if this is a playoff preview played in a playoff-type atmosphere tonight.

Tonight’s Important Numbers (5Dimes)

LINE: Green Bay – 3 ½ (-105); Seattle +3 ½ (+155)
OVER/UNDER: 44 (-110)

Breakdown: Green Bay

Here are some probably meaningless but interesting Green Bay trends nonetheless: The Packers win on the road, having been victorious in 10 of their last 11 games. Green Bay is also 6-1 in its last seven games against Seattle; although it should be noted only two of those games were played on the west coast, accounting for the only Packers loss. (That loss was also a Monday Night game, for what it’s worth). While the Packers love to score the total has gone under in 13 of Green Bay’s last 19 road games. The oddest, but worth noting, stat is that Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.

Obviously, statistics and trends will only get you so far. The fact is Green Bay was a juggernaut offense in 2011, helped the team make a push for perfection before settling on a 15-1 regular season. Nonetheless, Green Bay is a different team away from Lambeau Field. The Packers covered the spread in all but one regular season home game last year. On the road Green Bay failed to cover four times, including in the team’s lone loss as an 11-point favorite at Kansas City.

This team is different, and Vegas has noticed. Just once last season – when Green Bay was resting a slew of its starters in Week 17 vs. Detroit – were the Packers favored by less than four points in a game (they were favored by four points twice and 4 ½ points once). We’re hitting Week 3 this season and already the Packers are just a hook more than a field goal favorite.

Breakdown: Seattle

Some Seahawks trends to digest: The total has gone over in six of Seattle’s last eight home games and has also gone over in five of Seattle’s last seven matchups with Green Bay. Quest Field is really the best home-field advantage in football hands down. I’m sure you’ll have Green Bay fans and New Orleans fans challenging that but there is something about those animals in Seattle that make it a west coast house of horrors for so many east coast teams.

Seattle generally plays close games at home or, on the opposite end of the spectrum, blows a team out. That’s what makes this a perfect spread. Outside of some questionable clunkers at home last year (a 23-17 loss to lowly Washington and a 34-12 whipping at the hands of Cincinnati) most Seattle home losses are by close to a field goal. (Last year’s 19-17 Christmas Eve loss to San Francisco is the perfect example).

The Matchup

All things even, Green Bay is the better team. On a neutral field, assuming the three points given to home teams, the Packers would be about a touchdown favorite against the Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Green Bay offense will do that. Interestingly enough, this potent offense is averaging a pretty blah 22.5 points per game through two weeks. It hasn’t helped playing two of the league’s best defenses in San Francisco and Chicago. As with most prolific offenses the Packers will always go as Aaron Rodgers goes.

Last year Rodgers threw for 4,643 yards and 45 touchdowns in only 15 starts (he sat our Week 17). That’s nearly 290 yards per game to go along with three touchdowns. I didn’t even mention he threw just six picks in 502 pass attempts last year. This year, albeit in just two games against shut-down defenses, he has just 522 passing yards, three touchdowns and two picks. While the yardage is still respectable (261 yards per game is nothing to scoff at) it isn’t what makes Aaron Rodgers well, Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle’s defense has been getting high praise for the past few seasons, especially the front seven. Therein lies the problem: While Seattle has the seventh-best run defenses in the NFL it ranks dead last in pass defense. That has to sound like music to A-Rod’s ears.

The Packers defense was expected to do a complete 180 from last year’s dreadful defensive season. So far, in two weeks, it looks like the turnaround is in full effect. Green Bay is getting to the quarterback and, when it’s not the defense is making plays (four interceptions, a forced fumble, and a defensive touchdown are already on the resume). The caveat here is that rookie Russell Wilson doesn’t play like a rookie, especially against a pass rush. He’s cool in the pocket and, if forced to scramble, he still keeps his eyes downfield in hopes of making a play. While he’s not lighting up the record book in the air (averaging 152 passing yards and a touchdown through two weeks), he’s keeping plays alive and still has the ability to scramble for some yards.

That, my friends, will be the key matchup tonight. Rodgers is going to do his dirty work and throw for close to, if not more than, 300 yards and at least a few scores. The game will be decided on how Green Bay handles Wilson.

The Pick

If the NFL season has taught you anything now it’s don’t be surprised by anything. New England at 1-2? New Orleans winless? The Arizona Cardinals at 3-0? The Minnesota Vikings leading the NFC North?  All this should force your mind into reality: Anything can happen in the NFL, especially in 2012. Seattle has a rowdy crowd, one that’ll be even more lit up because of the Monday Night game. That extra half point is the key here as there’s a more-than-good chance Green Bay wins, but it’ll be close. There’s also a solid bet that the Seahawks win outright and the Packers trickle to the bottom of the NFC North with the Detroit Lions at 1-2. Go with the trends and that says to take Seattle +3 ½. This game has the looks of a 23-20 showdown, but could very well be played in the 30s. I would steer clear of the over/under on this one and just ride the Seahawks to victory.

THE BACKYARD
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
RELATED ARTICLES

Rodgers is sorry for refs even if NFL isnt

With the Green Bay Packers taking a day off after losing in Seattle on a botched touchdown call that has taken the NFL world by storm, quarterback Aaron Rodgers' weekly radio show was a little more anticipated than usual Tuesday. Immediately after Monday night's loss, both Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy chose their words carefully, but Rodgers was far more critical of the...

ESPN Fires SportsCenter Intern, Aaron Rodgers Happy Face & Bills Fan

Do you see random sh$% while driving to work and think it needs to be seen by the masses? Does the guy who sits next to you at work look like a tool on a daily basis? Does your dog lick his balls in an odd fashion? Is your neighbor working on some sort of outer space vehicle behind his shed? We want your WTF photos. Email us: mail@bustedcoverage.com Filed under: Daily WTF

Aaron Rodgers Sacked Eight Times By Seahawks in First Half, Four From Chris Clemons Alone (Video)

Aaron Rodgers may have navy blue and neon green nightmares Monday night. The Seahawks sacked Rodgers eight times in the first half on Monday night. Defensive end Chris Clemons had four of those eight sacks. We tried to tell you the Seahawks defense would be good this year. Rookie and controversial first-round selection Bruce Irvin had two sacks. Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane officially...

NFLTop Performers Through Week 3: Where’s Aaron Rodgers?

I know it's early in the season but it's always fun to discuss and debate who the best players are in the NFL. If you ask me I still say Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback, Ray Rice is the ultimate running back and Andre Johnson is the most complete wide receiver in the game.  But not right now!  While these players are clearly still at the top of their game and among...

Rodgers: Refs Tarnishing Game

Aaron Rodgers apologized to the fans and Mike McCarthy continued to take the high road on Tuesday.

Aaron Rodgers Slips and Falls

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was under a ton of pressure in the first half of his Monday Night Football match-up against the Seattle Seahawks.  Rodgers was so jumpy in the pocket that he just simply slip and feel to the ground while trying to set his feet for a pass. This is not something you see everyday, especially from an NFL MVP. The post Aaron Rodgers Slips...

Aaron Rodgers: I call bull on the NFL

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was mild-mannered during his postgame press conference Monday after the Packers 14-12 controversial loss to the Seattle Seahawks.  However, on Tuesday Rodgers let it all out on his weekly radio show with Jason Wilde on ESPN Milwaukee. "I think first of all, I've got to do something that the NFL is not going to do and apologize...

Week 4 Quarterback Rankings

      Kramerica Sports weekly player rankings are based on Yahoo Sports standard scoring settings. Positional ranks are based on numerous factors, including opposing defense, historical data, player health, gut feelings, and other classified variables.     Play of the Week- Look for Aaron Rodgers to bounce back from the Monday Night Football debacle with a top 5 performance...

Seahawks Escape Packers In A Controversial Finish

After the ruling heard around the world that awarded the Seattle Seahawks' Golden Tate with a  catch that gave Seattle a 14-12 victory of the Green Bay Packers on Monday night at Century Link Field. Here is a break down how the Packers failed to put themselves in position to not have to put the game in the hands of the inept replacement officials and how the Seahawks defense...

Packers vs. Seahawks Week 3 Preview

We're just a little more than two hours away from kickoff in Seattle for the Green Bay Packers vs. the Seahawks. Monday Night Football!There's an interesting stat which hit the Twittersphere today: Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers is winless on the road on Monday nights: 0-4. Yikes! He's 3-0 in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field on Monday nights. Hmmm. So, what can we...

Fantasy Football News: NFL Fantasy Football Stats Look Like Bizarro World Through First 3 Weeks

The 2012 NFL Fantasy Football season is now three weeks old. If you have been paying close attention, some of the stats thus far from players who have been perennial first or second round picks have simply been mind blowing. It almost resembles bizarro world. Players who went as top picks have been huge disappointments. Players who were not even drafted have climbed up their team’s...

Analysis: Offense Still Not Clicking

Green Bay’s high-powered offense has struggled early in the season The Green Bay Packers are 2-1 1-2. That puts the defending NFC North champions one game behind the division leading Vikings and Bears and tied with the Lions. Here’s my analysis of the offense after three games: QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers‘ passer rating is down nearly 35 points from last season, and while numbers...
Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.