NFL Week 5: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Los Angeles -1.5

What you need to know: Los Angeles’ loss to Arizona – specifically the lopsided margin – came as a surprise to anyone who watched the Rams dismantle Tampa Bay in Week 3. The defense was shredded, which was the continuation of an early trend that has seen the Rams rank just 18^th in scoring defense so far this year. That unit’s prowess and the combination of Matthew Stafford running Sean McVay’s offense is what is supposed to make the Rams special; against Arizona, neither element showed up. Seattle regained its equilibrium with a road win over San Francisco, with Russell Wilson again a model of efficiency. He might be too efficient, however; Seattle is the only team in the league that has not run at least 60 plays in any game this season. Their opponents have run 299 total plays, most in the league. That’s a recipe for defensive burnout unless things level out soon.

On the spot: Rams DT Aaron Donald. It feels absurd to even write this, but Donald was held in check by the Cardinals, failing to register a quarterback hit. Donald is, at worst, the second-best player on the planet, regardless of position, so it feels fair to expect weekly dominance.

Seahawks RB Alex Collins:  It seems unlikely that Chris Carson will go for Seattle, so the primary rushing duties will fall to Collins, who has just 13 carries through three games, though 10 came against San Francisco last week.

The pick: Rams 31 Seahawks 23

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Atlanta -3

What you need to know:  The Jets finally got themselves a win, taking advantage of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones’ absences to survive the Titans in overtime, 27-24. Zach Wilson showed what he could do when given a little more time to throw, passing for 297 yards and two touchdowns, and making several impressive throws down the field. Wilson hit two throws that traveled over 40 yards in the air, including one for an even 50, per Next Gen Stats, as well as two more that traveled over 25 air yards. The Jets aren’t good, but if they give Wilson time, he’s more than capable of making electrifying throws. Atlanta’s defense failed late, turning a 30-22 lead with five minutes left into a 34-30 defeat. New defensive coordinator Dean Pees has plenty of work to do; the Falcons are giving up 32 points per game, the worst mark in the league, and have struggled badly against the pass. Atlanta can’t get many stops, and can’t force turnovers; the Falcons’ two takeaways rank 25 ^th in the NFL.

On the spot: Jets RB Michael Carter. Wilson’s breakout was the big story of the Jets’ Week 4 win, but Carter was able to pick up his first career touchdown run in the process. His first four games have been largely a struggle, as he has averaged less than three yards per carry in three of his four outings.

Falcons DC Dean Pees:  There’s no mystery as to what’s ailing the Falcons; as inconsistent as their offense has been, if Pees’ group can’t get its act together, no amount of grown from Matt Ryan and the offense will matter for Atlanta.

The pick: Falcons 24 Jets 23

TV: FOX        Line: Green Bay -3

What you need to know:  Green Bay continued its rebound from a season-opening loss to New Orleans with an impressive win over the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers’ numbers weren’t eye-popping, but every time he needed a throw he was able to get one, and the Packers were able to run the ball against Pittsburgh, piling up a season-best 131 yards on the ground. Green Bay’s offense has found its stride, and the defense has been opportunistic, forcing two turnovers in each of its last three games. The defense is far from a strength, but as long as Aaron Rodgers keeps showing more and more of his 2020 form, it shouldn’t matter. Cincinnati showed that it was capable of handling success, albeit barely, by rallying from a 14-0 halftime deficit to beat the Jaguars. Joe Burrow went off in the second half, leading the Bengals to three straight touchdown drives, before engineering a game-winning field-goal march. It’s no surprise that his big game coincided with the Bengals protecting him well for the second straight week.

On the spot: Packers WR Randall Cobb.  Rodgers lobbied for the team to bring back Cobb, and he delivered against the Steelers, catching two touchdown passes. If he emerges as a legitimate complement to Davante Adams, Green Bay will be very hard to stop.

Bengals HC Zac Taylor:  Taylor is the Bengals’ play-caller, but the offense has sputtered early in games, having failed to score on any of its opening drives so far this year. That won’t cut it against Rodgers and a Packers offense that is rapidly finding its footing.

The pick: Bengals 27 Packers 23

TV: FOX        Line: Minnesota -9.5

What you need to know:  Any thought that the Lions had found some things to build on in their close loss to Baltimore was quickly erased, as the Bears jumped out to a 21-0 lead last week. Detroit’s first six drives resulted in two fumbles, three punts, and a turnover on downs. What had to irk head coach Dan Campbell the most was the fact that the first three drives of the game actually had some promise, totaling 168 yards overall. Detroit is rebuilding, and part of Campbell’s culture-building has to involve cleaning up sloppy play. The Vikings marched right down the field on their opening possession against the Browns, and then…failed to do anything else for the rest of the game. Minnesota’s next 11 possessions netted 193 yards, for an average of 17.5 yards per drive. The offensive outage was particularly surprising because Kirk Cousins entered the game playing as well as any quarterback in the league. The Vikings badly need a win to keep pace with Green Bay but would be looking past the Lions at their peril.

On the spot: Lions HC Dan Campbell.  Robert Saleh managed to take a little pressure on himself by getting the Jets a win, and Campbell, despite some commendable in-game maneuvers to this point, needs a win to placate a fan base with good reason to expect the worst.

Vikings OC Klint Kubiak:  Kubiak took over his father Gary’s post after last season, and while the results for Minnesota’s offense have been mostly solid, the team’s inability to build off its opening drive against Cleveland last week is a reflection of the coordinator as much as anyone.

The pick: Vikings 30 Lions 20

TV: CBS        Line: Tampa Bay -10

What you need to know: The Dolphins continue to flounder, having lost three straight games after a season-opening win against the Patriots. What’s more troubling is that two of the three losses have been by double-digits, including a 27-17 setback last week against Indianapolis. Miami’s offense has topped 300 yards just once in four games and ranks 31^st in the league in both points and yards. The defense hasn’t been able to do much to stem the tide, either, ranking 25^th in the league in points allowed. To make matters worse, wide receiver Will Fuller was placed on injured reserve with a broken finger, robbing Jacoby Brissett of a potentially explosive downfield weapon. The Buccaneers survived the Brady-Belichick Bowl, gutting out a 19-17 win in poor weather. Tampa Bay’s defense has been ravaged by injuries, particularly in the secondary, and the results speak for themselves, with the Bucs having surrendered the most passing yards in the league. The flip side to that coin is that Tampa’s opponents are throwing constantly because they’re completely unable to run the ball, with New England running for a net of negative-one-yard last Sunday night.

On the spot: Dolphins HC Brian Flores.  Flores is a Belichick disciple, and he’s going to have to channel some of Belichick’s best defensive work, because reinforcements appear far off for Miami’s offense, and the schedule only slackens for two games after this one, before a Halloween date with Buffalo.

Buccaneers CB Richard Sherman:  Tampa no doubt would have preferred to ease Sherman into their system, but because of injuries he was pressed into duty right away. Despite his overall reputation, it’s reasonable to assume that Miami will still try to challenge him to see if there’s still rust on his game.

The pick: Buccaneers 34 Dolphins 14

TV: CBS        Line: New Orleans -2

What you need to know:  New Orleans was the biggest surprise loser of Week 4, dropping a home game to the previously winless Giants. A Taysom Hill interception didn’t directly lead to New York points, but it did short-circuit a Saints drive that looked like it could have ended with at least a field goal, so it’s fair to wonder about whether or not Sean Payton should continue to heavily integrate Hill into his offensive game plan. A win would send New Orleans into its bye week 3-2, before two tough tests against the Seahawks and Buccaneers. Washington rallied to beat Atlanta, and in the process may have gotten more evidence that Taylor Heinicke might have the right stuff to be its quarterback of the future. Heinicke had his best game as a pro against the Falcons, rallying Washington for two late touchdowns to overcome an eight-point deficit in the final four minutes. If the Football Team’s defense can come around, they could make the NFC East race very interesting.

On the spot: Saints QB Taysom Hill. Payton loves Hill and the different wrinkles he can show defenses, but that versatility won’t mean much if Hill turns the ball over when Payton lets him turn it loose.

Washington Football Team QB Taylor Heinicke: It isn’t just the statistics that look impressive with Heinicke, it’s the way he actually plays quarterback, seemingly confident he can make any throw at any time. Heinicke is starting to build real long-term momentum, and he’s helping Washington’s pass catchers look much more dangerous.

The pick: Washington Football Team 26 Saints 20

TV: FOX        Line: Pittsburgh -1

What you need to know:  Denver heads into this game banged up all over the roster, but the most important player whose status is up in the air is quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who exited the Broncos’ Week 4 tilt with Baltimore with a concussion. If Bridgewater successfully exits the protocol, he’ll play, and Denver will be able to lean on his steady play, their running game, and their defense to try and get out of Heinz Field with a win. If not, then it’s Drew Lock time. Pittsburgh finally got a passable performance from its offensive line against Green Bay, but Ben Roethlisberger was putrid after an opening-drive touchdown, routinely checking down in the absence of pressure and rarely challenging the Packers at the second level. Roethlisberger also suffered a hip injury during the game, and the Steelers defense is still wounded. Pittsburgh needs a win badly, but nothing about their offensive performance thus far suggests that they can score enough to get one.

On the spot: Broncos QB Drew Lock. It’s not yet known if Lock will start, but if he does, he’ll have to avoid the kind of mistakes that have so far plagued him in the pros. Denver’s defense should be able to contain Pittsburgh; the Steelers’ best chance for victory involves forcing turnovers.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger:  Roethlisberger’s play continues to dominate the headlines in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 2-7 in his last nine starts, including their playoff loss to Cleveland, and their offense has looked just as stagnant as it did at the end of last season. If it continues, calls for his benching will get louder.

The pick: Broncos 23 Steelers 13

TV: FOX        Line: Carolina -3.5

What you need to know:  Philadelphia put up some points against the Chiefs, but the Eagles’ defense could do next to nothing to stop Kansas City’s offense. Jalen Hurts put up big numbers, but they were somewhat deceiving, as Philadelphia was playing catchup for most of the afternoon. The Eagles’ defense has trended in the wrong direction since their Week 1 win over Atlanta, culminating in 471 total yards allowed against the Chiefs, including 200 on the ground. Philadelphia has had more runs attempted against them than any team in the league, and they are merely average at defending it, allowing 4.4 yards per carry, good for 18 ^th in the NFL. Carolina had Christian McCaffrey return to practice, but it stands to reason that the Panthers will be cautious with his participation this week, and err on the side of caution when it comes to actually returning him to game action. Sam Darnold had impressive stats against Dallas but was playing catchup to an even greater degree than Hurts against the Chiefs. Darnold has been good through four games; getting a win without McCaffrey in the lineup would reflect well on his progress.

On the spot: Eagles T Jack Driscoll.  Driscoll stepped in for Lane Johnson, a surprise Week 4 inactive, and acquitted himself well at right tackle, earning an overall grade of 71.8 from Pro Football Focus. He might find himself starting again this week, and will have to contend with a much better defense.

Panthers WR Robby Anderson: Through four games, Anderson has caught a career-low 45.5 percent of his targets. Though he and Darnold have a history dating back to their days with the Jets, that has yet to manifest as production with Carolina.

The pick: Panthers 27 Eagles 20

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -4

What you need to know:  Other than the Saints, who lost to the Giants, no team had a worse loss in Week 4 than Tennessee. The Titans got a big performance from Derrick Henry, but A.J. Brown and Julio Jones’ absences were too much to overcome. That said, the offense wasn’t the problem against the Jets. Tennessee’s pass defense got shredded by Zach Wilson, especially on deep throws, and couldn’t keep him hemmed in the pocket. Tennessee’s offense might be good, but it won’t matter if their defense can’t hold up its end of the bargain. Urban Meyer’s honeymoon in Jacksonville, if there was one, is officially and spectacularly over. Meyer drew universal criticism after video surfaced of him in a Columbus-area bar with a woman other than his wife; in football terms, the fact that he did not travel with his team back to Florida after their Thursday night loss to the Bengals was unthinkable. If he doesn’t start winning games soon, his tenure will be over before it ever really gets started.

On the spot: Titans DC Shane Bowen. Bowen’s defense has struggled mightily against the pass so far this season; this is his second year on the job, and his group was a problem for Tennessee last year. If he isn’t feeling the heat, he should be.

Jaguars HC Urban Meyer:  Until further notice, no person affiliated with the Jaguars is more on the spot than Meyer, who has no one to blame but himself for the way that his time as head coach has gone. Truth be told, it’s almost impossible to imagine things working out.

The pick: Jaguars 28 Titans 24

TV: CBS        Line: New England -8.5

What you need to know:  After an emotionally draining game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, the Patriots and Bill Belichick get the perfect palate cleanser in the form of the Texans, who have appeared more and more hapless with each passing game after their season-opening win over Jacksonville. While New England lost against Tampa Bay, Mac Jones’ performance drew plenty of praise, but Belichick did make waves by making it clear that Stephon Gilmore was about to be cut. The Panthers decided to jump in and trade for the corner, who will likely make his debut after Week 6 when he comes off the PUP list. Houston looks like a complete mess in every facet, and likely will be, at least on offense, until Tyrod Taylor returns. Davis Mills did nothing right in a wretched four-interception outing against the Bills, and Houston’s offense was unable to move the ball in any significant way. In fact, five of the Texans’ 12 drives netted negative yardage.

On the spot: Patriots RB Damien Harris.  Harris’ fumble cost the Patriots a win in Week 1, but he was running the ball reasonably well through two games. The wheels have fallen off since. The Pats have just 48 yards rushing over their last two games, and need Harris to be better to take the pressure off of Jones.

Texans HC David Culley:  It’s going to be a long season in Houston, and Culley, a man who was always well-respected in NFL circles, if not necessarily viewed as a hot head-coaching candidate, is going to have his work cut out for him to keep his team from checking out mentally.

The pick: Patriots 26 Texans 9

TV: CBS        Line: Las Vegas -5.5

What you need to know:  Matt Nagy surrendered play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, and wouldn’t you know it, Justin Fields and the Bears’ offense suddenly had a whiff of competence in a 24-14 win over Detroit. Justin Fields, unsurprisingly, was also named the team’s quarterback moving forward. Unfortunately for Chicago, running back David Montgomery will be out several weeks with a knee injury; that puts the onus on Damien Williams, who posted 55 yards on eight carries against Detroit. Las Vegas couldn’t protect Derek Carr, and couldn’t beat the Chargers, falling into a 21-0 hole before nearly climbing out, but ultimately falling short. The Raiders are explosive, as proved by their swift rally, but they need to find some semblance of offensive balance; Carr can’t do things all by himself through the air. Las Vegas also struggles to stop the run, which might be a big problem against a Bears team that figures to try and replicate its Week 4 success on the ground.

On the spot: Bears OC Bill Lazor. Lazor got the most out of Justin Fields by putting him under center more often and creating favorable situations in which he could succeed. Can he come up with an encore against an opponent against whom 24 points might not be enough?

Raiders QB Derek Carr:  Joey Bosa irked Carr when he implied that pressure and hits rattled the Raiders’ quarterback, but that has been the book on him for years. Now that Las Vegas has a blemish on its record, how will Carr respond?

The pick: Raiders 27 Bears 19

TV: CBS        Line: Los Angeles -2

What you need to know:  Cleveland’s rebuilt defense seems to be coming into its own, as evidenced by a dominant performance against Minnesota, one which saw the Browns pitch a shutout after the Vikings’ game-opening touchdown drive. For the year, Cleveland is fourth in the league in scoring defense and has allowed just 34 total points in the last three weeks after surrendering 33 to the Chiefs in Week 1. That surge in stinginess is much-needed because Baker Mayfield has been unable to find himself, with just two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. Mayfield harshly evaluated his performance against Minnesota, and he was right. The Chargers don’t have the same problems under center; Justin Herbert has been more productive and is on a particularly hot streak of late. He has seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games, and in going into Kansas City and outdueling Mahomes in Week 3, managed to do what Mayfield couldn’t. The future looks very bright in Los Angeles; if this keeps up, maybe some of the Chargers’ “home” fans will even notice!

On the spot: Browns QB Baker Mayfield.  Mayfield’s calling card coming out of Oklahoma was his accuracy. It was alarming to see him complete just 45 percent of his passes against Minnesota, even with a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. The Browns have Mayfield in as favorable a situation as possible. At some point, he needs to take full advantage.

Chargers WR Mike Williams: Williams had three big games to start the season (22 catches, 295 yards) before stumbling against Las Vegas, with just one catch and 11 yards on four targets. The Browns will try to take him away, but he needs to re-emerge as a big-play threat, as Cleveland’s defense might make long drives hard to come by.

The pick: Browns 28 Chargers 24

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -7

What you need to know:  Daniel Jones had a monster game against New Orleans’ typically stingy pass defense, going off for 402 yards on just 40 attempts. He’ll need to do more of the same against the Cowboys, as Dallas looks like it has finally turned the corner and morphed into a potential NFC East bully. Jones and Kadarius Toney could be a very dangerous combination for years to come, provided they can work out some of the kinks and get up to speed quickly. Toney’s speed and playmaking ability have the potential to transform the Giants’ offense, but as New York fans know too well, potential only goes so far; just look at Jones’ mediocre career record to this point. The Cowboys could very easily be 4-0, and Dak Prescott looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, not to mention a serious MVP candidate. Dallas’ formula is simple; combine elite offense with opportunistic defense, and hope that’s enough. The Cowboys have 10 takeaways through four games, and at least two in every game, which is hardly sustainable. That said, if corner Trevon Diggs keeps playing at his current level, maybe it is.

On the spot: Giants WR Kadarius Toney.  Toney’s production against the Saints – six catches, 78 yards – dwarfed what he did through his first three games. He’s electrifying after the catch, and if he and Jones develop more consistency, it will open things up for Saquon Barkley and others.

Cowboys OC Kellen Moore:  Make no mistake, Dallas will go as its offense goes. To that end, Moore has to continue to find the right mix in his backfield with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. So far, he’s done it; whether it continues will determine whether Dallas is great or merely good.

The pick: Cowboys 31 Giants 27

TV: FOX        Line: Arizona -5

What you need to know:  Trey Lance should get his first chance to start for San Francisco, as Jimmy Garoppolo is both struggling and hobbled, but Kyle Shanahan has so far refused to name a starter for this game. That might just be gamesmanship given Garoppolo’s health, but there’s no doubt that most Niners fans want to see the third overall pick in action. Lance threw two touchdowns in relief of Garoppolo last week, though one was a garbage-time score. Needless to say, San Francisco’s offense will get a lot more dynamic if Lance takes over. The Cardinals are humming along; what else is there to say? Arizona demolished the Rams with an extremely impressive offensive performance, led by another stellar Kyler Murray effort. Murray threw for two touchdowns and ran for 39 yards, and Chase Edmonds and James Conner combined to form a dynamic rushing duo. If Arizona is going to be able to keep teams honest with their ground game like they did against the Rams, watch out.

On the spot: 49ers QB Trey Lance.  Lance continues to progress, according to Shanahan, and it seems like a no-brainer to play him over Garoppolo, at least for this week. Assuming he does get that chance, he might well have to win a shootout in his first NFL start.

Cardinals DE Chandler Jones:  Arizona’s top-ranked offense is dynamic, that much everyone can see. Their defense continuing to stay in the top-10 in the league would make them truly special. To that end, Jones needs to start producing again. He’s been held without a sack since racking up five against Tennessee in the season opener.

The pick: Cardinals 34 49ers 21

TV: NBC        Line: Kansas City -3

What you need to know: Since a season-opening loss to the Steelers, no team in the NFL has looked more impressive than Buffalo. The Bills have rolled over their last three opponents, with no game closer than a 22-point margin. Buffalo has also pitched two shutouts in that time, even if one was against the hapless Texans. The Bills look like the strongest overall team in the league right now, boasting the top-ranked scoring and total defense, and the league’s second-ranked scoring offense. They’re riding high, and the Chiefs look vulnerable; a win in Kansas City would be a major statement to not just the AFC, but the entire NFL. Kansas City’s fatal flaw is easy to identify; the Chiefs are wretched on defense, ranking 31^st in the league in points allowed. Their problems are exacerbated in the red zone, where opponents scored touchdowns on 11 of 12 trips in the first three games. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense did better against Philadelphia, allowing touchdowns on just 50 percent of the Eagles’ trips. They’ll have to be markedly better against a Buffalo offense that appears fully functional and dangerous.

On the spot: Bills RB Devin Singletary.  When the Bills can run the ball effectively, they are nearly unstoppable on offense. Kansas City is allowing the most yards per carry in the league, so Singletary could be key to Buffalo playing keep-away from Patrick Mahomes.

Chiefs WR Josh Gordon:  The Chiefs need massive defensive improvements, so naturally they signed…Gordon? There’s no doubting Gordon’s talent, but it certainly appears that Kansas City’s strategy is going to be to try and outscore everyone. Who knows, it might just work.

The pick: Chiefs 38 Bills 31

TV: ESPN        Line: Baltimore -6.5

What you need to know:  Indianapolis got a much-needed win against Miami, and Carson Wentz looked sharp despite playing on bum ankles, but the task toughens considerably this week against Baltimore. Indianapolis is banged up, but that didn’t stop Jonathan Taylor from rumbling for 103 yards and a touchdown against Miami. Taylor’s ability to give the Colts balance and keep defenses from teeing off on Wentz, whose mobility is compromised, will be key to Indy’s offense performing at an acceptable level. If it does, the Colts could hang around in an AFC South that seems devoid of a good team, let alone a great one. The Ravens handled their business against Denver, albeit in a way that angered Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, who was unhappy about the Ravens’ final play, a five-yard Lamar Jackson run that kept alive Baltimore’s 43-game streak of 100-yard rushing games, which is tied for the NFL record. Lamar Jackson even seemed perplexed by the play call and indicated that the record held little meaning for him. In any event, Jackson has the Ravens’ offense humming despite all its injuries, and Baltimore again looks like a serious contender for the AFC North crown.

On the spot: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor.  As long as Wentz is under center and trying to play on balky ankles, Indy’s ability to generate some semblance of a consistent running game is going to be crucial. With Quenton Nelson on IR, Taylor’s ability to make yards for himself will become a big part of the Colts’ run game.

Ravens HC John Harbaugh:  Harbaugh took plenty of heat for how the Broncos game ended. It will be interesting to wonder whether or not he tries to use the backlash to further motivate his team, as they’ll need to keep winning to stay on the pace in the rugged AFC North.

The pick: Ravens 24 Colts 19