Assad impressively shut down a star-studded Team USA lineup through three scoreless innings on Sunday.
As Chicago Cubs manager David Ross noted at the beginning of Spring Training, the team’s fifth starter spot is a competition between Adrian Sampson, Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad. All of these hurlers made strong cases to fill the role with the work they did last season. Not to overreact to exhibition action, but if we’re basing it off performance and it’s indeed a true competition, two names have emerged as frontrunners — Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad.
Wesneski features a huge sweeping slider, and many project him to have a higher ceiling. However, Assad does a few things well that were on full display Sunday night during Mexico and USA’s World Baseball Classic Pool C matchup.
Not only was the raucous environment not too much to handle for Assad, but he carved through an All-Star-like USA lineup with little resistance. Assad worked three scoreless innings, allowing only one hit (to Mike Trout) with no walks and two strikeouts. Both strikeouts came against Pete Alonso.
Most notably, the 25-year-old Mexican pitcher’s average velocity was up on every pitch from a year ago. He topped out at 97 MPH on his fastball and averaged 94.8 and 95.1 MPH on his sinker and four-seamer, respectively. Assad averaged 92.3 MPH on his sinker and 92.9 MPH on his four-seamer last year.
Command (12 percent walk rate) and strikeouts (18.1 percent strikeout rate) were his most significant issues a year ago. However, he held batters to a lower-than-league-average hard-hit rate (33.6%) and turned in a solid -3 Run-Value on his sinker and cutter.
Decisions, Decisions
Javier Assad hasn’t allowed an earned run since the start of Spring Training. In four innings pitched, he has a 0.25 WHIP and two strikeouts.
Maybe this is a case where I’m overly bought in on a small sample size, but the Cubs could do worse in the rotation than Assad and Wesneski and have a clear need for another lefty out of the bullpen to pair with Brandon Hughes. Would they consider using Drew Smyly in relief?
Hayden Wesneski was perfect in four innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday. So far this spring, in 8.2 innings, he has yet to allow an earned run with 11 strikeouts and two walks. It would be hard to justify not putting him in the rotation at this rate.
On the other hand, Adrian Sampson has struggled mightily with a 14.04 ERA in 8.1 innings. After another lackluster performance where he allowed six hits and two home runs against the Brewers on Sunday, Sampson might sit outside the rotation looking in.
The tricky part about the Cubs’ rotation competition is it involves decisions about which relief pitchers to cut/waive. Julian Merryweather is out of minor-league options. Michael Rucker and Rowan Wick have options. Meanwhile, one would think Brandon Hughes, Michael Fulmer, Brad Boxberger, Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson are locks to make the roster.
That leaves uncertainty for Assad since he still has options. Do the Cubs want to mess around with his development and use him out of the bullpen? I don’t think that would stunt his growth, but if he’s showing signs as a starter, the preferred route would be to use him at Triple-A or the majors as a starter to continue his development.
This leads me back to the question: would the Cubs consider moving veteran lefty Drew Smyly and his $9.5 million luxury tax hit to the bullpen? Probably not, but it’s something to think about.
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