The Minnesota Twins take on the Kansas City Royals. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Royals prediction and pick.
Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Twins, while Zack Greinke goes to the hill for the Royals.
Dylan Bundy has a 4.68 ERA. He has generally been a four-to-five-inning, two-runs-per-start pitcher for the Twins in recent weeks. He did get shelled in one recent September start, and he pitched a scoreless start earlier this month as well, but for the most part, the past six weeks have fit into the four- or five-inning, two-run pattern. Bundy doesn’t work deep into games, and he gives up a few runs but normally stays out of the big inning. The problem with Bundy’s profile is that he can’t work into the sixth or seventh innings consistently, which leaves the Twins’ bullpen exposed. This is also a limitation of Chris Archer, another member of the Minnesota rotation. The Twins, one would think, will seek upgrades on their staff for 2023, and that begins with getting guys who can more regularly pitch six innings per start. Bundy hasn’t been able to live up to that standard. The Twins have to reduce the exposure of their bullpen, a key reason they fell short in the American League Central Division this year.
Zack Greinke has a 4.10 ERA, which isn’t particularly good, but one has to remember that in a sequence of four starts in late May, he gave up at least five earned runs in three of the four outings. His ERA in early May was 2.67. It soared to over five runs after those disastrous three starts in the second half of May. Since then, Greinke has reduced his overall yearly ERA by one run. His numbers have generally been consistent, but that late-May implosion has had a lingering effect on his overall 2022 numbers.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Royals MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Royals Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+136)
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-164)
Over: 9 (-120)
Under: 9 (-102)
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins have been a failure this year, but the one area where they have clearly succeeded is that they have beaten the Royals a lot. The Twins have recorded multiple sweeps against Kansas City, and they have worn out the Royals. The problem for Minnesota has been its work against the Cleveland Guardians, who just won four of five against the Twins to essentially knock Minnesota out of the A.L. Central race and, by extension, the postseason push. Beating the Royals has not been an issue, however. The Twins defeated Greinke and the Royals last week in Minnesota. They can certainly do so again.
Why The Royals Could Cover the Spread
After all the beatings they have taken from the Twins this season, you would think the Royals are due for a good game against Minnesota with a competent pitcher, Greinke, on the hill. That point aside, Minnesota just lost four of five in Cleveland and essentially lost its last chance at making the playoffs. This should be a demoralized Twins team Kansas City can finally pounce on. It’s hard to see how Minnesota is going to come to the ballyard with a lot of life or confidence or energy. This is a moment for Kansas City to exploit.
Final Twins-Royals Prediction & Pick
Pick the Royals precisely because the Twins will be thoroughly depressed as they play this game in Kauffman Stadium.
Final Twins-Royals Prediction & Pick: Royals +1.5
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