While a few big-name free agents have already secured their landing spot for the 2022 season, it looks like the proverbial Hot Stove will get ice cold in an overnight freeze in early December.
Many have speculated for months that the owners of Major League Baseball will lock out the players if the two sides can't negotiate a new agreement before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. EST on Dec. 1. As MLB's quarterly owners' meetings wrapped up on Thursday, commissioner Rob Manfred's comments on labor negotiations did not paint a pretty picture for the coming months.
"We understand, I understand, that time is becoming an issue," Manfred told reporters, including ESPN's Jeff Passan. "That's a challenge. We've had challenges with respect to making labor agreements before, and we got a pretty good track record of overcoming those challenges. I can tell you from the clubs' perspective, we're committed to continuing to offer proposals and suggestions in an effort to get to an agreement before December 1."
While Manfred maintains his position of trying to get a deal done to avoid the baseball's first work stoppage in 26 years, he went back to the 1994-95 strike as an example of why a lockout might be necessary to avoid any interruption to spring training or regular season games in 2022.
When a CBA expires, the owners don't have to lock out the players. In 1994, the owners opted to continue negotiations with the players after the expiration of the CBA. However, the two sides were not able to come to a new agreement, which led to the players' decision to strike. This, of course, led to the cancelation of the remainder of the '94 season and the World Series.
This time around, Manfred doesn't want to give the players the option to strike and potentially lose games once again.
"I don’t think '94 worked out too great for anybody," Manfred said. "I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That’s what it’s about: it’s avoiding doing damage to the season.”
While a lockout doesn't seem to threaten either spring training or the 2022 regular season at this point, it would still have a damaging effect on the game and its reputation. If the owners lock out the players on Dec. 2, there can be no free agent signings or trades of players on 40-man rosters. The Major League portion of the Winter Meetings—the marquee event of the MLB offseason where some of the biggest trades and signings take place—would be canceled. The Rule 5 draft, which annually takes place on the final day of the Winter Meetings, would be pushed back until after a new CBA is in place, or could even be canceled altogether.
A lockout would quell any flame on the Hot Stove, during an offseason highlighted by a talented and deep class of free agents. Baseball would be put on the back burner, and be completely forgotten about until a new CBA is in place. However, Manfred believes there is an offseason lockout, then there is a lockout that interrupts games.
“I can’t believe there’s a single fan in the world who doesn’t understand that an offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games,” Manfred said.
It's been reported that many in the industry believe a new CBA could come together by early February, which would give teams and free agents roughly two weeks to decide their respective futures before pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training complexes in Arizona and Florida.
Until then, the owners and the players have to bridge a massive gap, specifically on the core economics of the game. The players have seen the average salary decline over the past five seasons while MLB revenues were drastically on the rise before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Players want the competitive-balance tax lifted to incentivize spending while the league recently submitted an economic proposal that would essentially scrap the current arbitration system and replace it with one that pays arbitration-eligible players based on FanGraphs' formula for Wins Above Replacement (fWAR).
According to The Athletic, MLB and the MLBPA are scheduled to have more talks on Friday, Monday and Tuesday. The industry expects the two sides to negotiate at a faster pace ahead of the Dec. 1 deadline in an attempt to avoid a lockout. However, it looks rather grim at this point in time.
Final Thoughts
Expect a lockout. The commissioner's words justify the use of a lockout to come to an agreement with the Players Association. It's not time to worry just yet about spring training or regular season games, but the writing is on the wall. If you're a diehard baseball fan, now is a good time to find another hobby for the next couple months.
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