Ke’Bryan Hayes 2026 Projection

Ke’Bryan Hayes was the first piece acquired in the 2025 trade deadline for the Cincinnati Reds. He lived up to expectations by winning yet another Gold Glove, cementing him as one of the best defenders in the league. His offense, however, was a pleasant surprise at times throughout the second half.

This poses a curious question: can he take that next step at the plate in 2026 for Cincinnati?

Ke’Bryan Hayes 2026 Projection

Hayes’ Contract

Hayes signed an 8-year, $70 million extension with the Pirates back in 2022. The Reds will be on the books for him for the next four seasons, paying him $7 million a year for 2026 and 2027, and $8 million a year for 2028 and 2029. 2030 will be a club option for $12 million.

While it certainly isn’t a hefty price by any means, there have been concerns about the team seemingly being willing to commit to him for the foreseeable future as their third baseman. Hayes’ forte is defense and defense only, which is usually a specialty reserved for middle infielders rather than a corner infielder. Offensive production often goes hand in hand with corner infielders, but Hayes’s offensive ceiling seems capped at what it has been over the past few seasons.

For a team that struggles with offense already, they can’t really afford to have a black hole at a premium position.

There have, however, been some signs that may point to some progression at the plate for Hayes.

Hayes’ Offensive Jump

After a .569 OPS in 100 games in Pittsburgh in 2025, Hayes posted a .656 OPS in 52 games in Cincinnati. It was an OPS+ jump from 59 to 78. While some may say that this is simply going from unplayable to still well below league average, context is needed.

The concern with Hayes’ bat was that it would continue being essentially the worst in the league. That level of production (or lack thereof) will be a net negative, no matter the level of defense that comes with it. However, if Hayes can be an 80 OPS+ bat at the bottom of the order, the rest of the lineup can cover for his deficiencies, seeing as he brings a ton of value with his glove.

The way Hayes increased his OPS was also promising. His average was at .236 with Pittsburgh and actually even lower with Cincinnati at .234. However, he walked a whole lot more with the same number of walks (18) with Cincinnati in half as many games played. This led to a jump from a horrendous .279 OBP to an acceptable .315 OBP. A.315 OBP is still nothing to write home about, but the Reds don’t need him to be Juan Soto. They need him to produce at a level that isn’t “worst in the league” level.

Hayes also slugged the best he had in the past three seasons in Cincinnati, posting a .342 SLG, his highest since his .453 SLG in 2023.

Hayes‘ Steady Defense

The positive aspect of trading for Hayes is that the defense at the hot corner will be elite for years to come. A team like Cincinnati likes to build its pitching around strikeouts and ground balls, seeing as it plays in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. 

The defense up the middle is already elite with Elly De La Cruz (somewhat controversially) and Matt McLain. Despite the errors from De La Cruz, he still grades out above league average, and McLain is plain and simple, one of the best gloves at second base. 

With third base defense also locked up, the Reds are ensuring maximum support behind their already formidable pitching staff.

In 2025, Hayes took home another Gold Glove, the second of his career. Hayes is one of the rare players for whom both Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) grade him well:

19 DRS

21 OAA (99th percentile)

17 Fielding Run Value (98th percentile)

Not much else can be said besides the fact that he is simply one of, if not the best, defensive players in all of baseball.

Hayes’ 2026 Expectations And Hope

To get the easy part out of the way, the Reds will expect Hayes to continue putting up Platinum Glove-level defense in 2026 and beyond. It is the offense that gets trickier.

His overall .240 xBA and .338 xSLG from 2025 are discouraging, but he did show a significant offensive jump with Cincinnati. Once again, the Reds would be silly to expect even league-average production at the plate, but they should gladly take an 80 OPS+ season from the bottom of the lineup. 

Continuing to draw more walks and get on base at least 30% of the time will be vital to the team’s overall offensive success in 2026. If Hayes can do that, the move will age gracefully. The only concern is the possibility of Hayes blocking the path for more talented pieces currently in the minor league system. Still, his contract isn’t tradeable if they feel the need to move him elsewhere.