3 Key Concepts for Bears vs. Packers

Green Bay’s defense has struggled to stop the run for the past few years. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, they rank 30th or worse in run defense DVOA, EPA, and success rate. Additionally, they rank 23rd in explosive run rate allowed, which accounts for runs of 15-plus yards.

Meanwhile, the Bears' offense ranks ninth in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing EPA, and 14th in rush success rate. Additionally, they rank 13th in explosive run rate. This is a good matchup for the Bears' ground game, and they should lean into that.

The last time these two teams faced off, the Bears ran for 180 yards on 27 rush attempts, which is good for 6.7 yards per carry. Not to mention that Justin Fields only accounted for 20 of those rushing yards. So why was Chicago only able to muster 10 points?

The Bears opened the game with a 71-yard touchdown drive. But their next series began with a sack followed by a screen pass for a loss of four yards that led to a three-and-out. They opened the following series with a false start and two inefficient runs that resulted in another three-and-out. The next series began with an incompletion before a loss of five yards created a third-and-15, which ended in another three-and-out. By halftime, Green Bay held a 24-7 lead.

The Bears cannot afford to fall behind the chains in Week 13. It did them in during their first meeting with the Packers and it will be the same story if they cannot execute more efficiently. This matchup plays into the offense that Chicago wants to run. They must execute the game plan with precision.

2. Force Green Bay Into True Passing Downs

“True Pass Sets” is a stat that counts dropbacks excluding play-action, rollouts, screens, short dropbacks, and throws that are out in less than two seconds. The Packers have only used a “True Pass Set” on 36% of their dropbacks in 2022. That is the sixth-lowest rate among all NFL teams.

Green Bay has used play action on 26% of Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, which ranks 14th among 29 qualifying QBs. Additionally, the Packers have used screens on 19% of Rodgers' dropbacks, which ranks first among 29 qualifying QBs. When combined, screen passes and play-action attempts have accounted for 45% of Rodgers' dropbacks, 47% of his passing yards, and 57% of his touchdown passes.

On the flip side, when Rodgers has been asked to perform straight dropbacks, the blemishes have been more apparent. This seems to be due to a combination of declining arm talent and a lack of pass-catching talent. Don't get me wrong — Rodgers still has arm talent that will flash a few times per game. But I'm not sure it's still good enough to overcome a lack of pass-catching talent. Straight dropbacks have accounted for 55% of Rodgers' total dropbacks, 54% of his passing yards, 43% of his touchdowns, and 78% of his interceptions.

The Bears need to force Green Bay into more clear passing situations where screens are not going to get the job done and play action loses its effectiveness. The defense will need to win on early downs to do this, which is a big ask. But if they can force the Packers into these passing situations, they will get some chances to take the football away.

 3. Keep Christian Watson in Check

Packers' rookie wide receiver Christian Watson has really burst onto the scene over the last three weeks. Over that span, he has 12 catches on 20 targets for 265 yards and six touchdowns. On the season, five of his 22 catches have gone for 20-plus yards, and he averages 16 yards per reception.

While his volume stats are still underwhelming for the year (353 yards across nine games), the recent three-game stretch makes me think that something clicked for the rookie. Watson runs a 4.36 forty-yard dash and has elite long speed once he lets it rip downfield.

He combines that speed with NFL size, standing at 6-foot-4 with good length. However, his frame is light, weighing in at 208 lbs. It will be important for the Bears' cornerbacks (especially Jaylon Johnson) to use physicality against Watson's lighter frame. The risk associated with that is Watson leaving his defender in the dust and grasping at air. But it seems the 23-year-old is the key to the Packers' passing offense of late, so the Bears will need to be proactive to take him out of the game.