Kenny Pickett will be more productive in 2023. Okay, that seems evident because Pickett should take a second-year leap from his rookie season. The preseason would indicate Pickett could take a massive leap into the next tier of young quarterbacks if he can keep up a white-hot start. But a more productive, in just a statistical analysis, seems likely for Kenny Pickett in his second season.
To put it into perspective, Pittsburgh had the least passing touchdowns in 2022, with only 12. Pickett had seven of those 12, but his rookie touchdown percentage on his throws came in at a lowly 1.8%. That would rank Pickett dead last since 1990 among rookies with at least 12 starts. Peeling that back just a bit, Jimmy Clausen had a 1% touchdown percentage in 10 rookie-year starts with the Panthers, per Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points.
This chart reveals something important about Pickett. By sheer historical statistical analysis, Pickett should see a positive regression upward. The second-year average doubles on average for the quarterbacks listed above. Jump that up to quarterbacks with at least 12 starts, like Pickett; it climbs even more to 4.6%. So, not only with more volume should Pickett see a jump, but at large at an efficiency sample.
Take the most recent example on that list, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in his rookie year around a terrible supporting cast. Lawrence broke out in his sophomore campaign with some stability around him, dotting defenses up en route to 25 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. Now, Lawrence got the generational label as a prospect, while Pickett turned out as a dividing prospect for many, so the bar for Pickett can not be tied to Lawrence. But that is a huge second-year leap, while even modest second-year leaps make a player more efficient and productive from the quarterback position.
Pickett will play and play a lot. He saw the interception rate drop dramatically following his horrendous first few starts in the NFL. He threw two total interceptions across all practices in training camp while still airing the ball out, much like he did in the preseason.
One other stat to note with Pickett — his deep ball has looked pristine this preseason. The ball placement jump from year one ti year two looks real. During his 13 games, Pickett ranked as one of the league’s best deep ball throws. No, that’s not a fake sentence. According to PlayerProfiler, his deep ball catchable pass rate topped the league during that time period. Even more so, his catchable pass rate under pressure also led the league during that stretch.
What does a second-year breakout look like for Pickett? Think of the group having more than 20 touchdown passes and less than 12 interceptions with this skill group. The questions about Matt Canada still stand. But Pickett should have over 3000 passing yards, over 20 touchdowns, and below 12 interceptions if he breaks out. That checks out as a guy who ascended from a rocky road of a first year, and the stats likely will not blow up the stat sheet given the team’s propensity towards running the football.
The number of attributes plus growth Pickett has shown within the play’s structure this year gives credence to the fact that these goals are realistic for Pickett. So, it comes down to Pickett executing in real-time and continuing to stack weeks upon weeks once teams specifically gameplan for the Steelers offense.
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