Assessing Houston Astros' offseason outlook after ALCS elimination

The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. The Astros can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.

Guaranteed contracts

• Yordan Alvarez, DH: $103M through 2028
• Cristian Javier, RHP: $59M through 2027
• Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $51M through 2026
• José Abreu, 1B: $39M through 2025
• Alex Bregman, 3B: $28.5M through 2024
• Jose Altuve, 2B: $26M through 2024
• Rafael Montero, RHP: $23M through 2025
• Ryan Pressly, RHP: $16M through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 vesting option)
• Justin Verlander, RHP: $12.033M through 2024 (deal includes vesting player option for ’25)*
• Hector Neris, RHP: $8.5M player option ($1M buyout)
• Kendall Graveman, RHP: $8M through 2024

Option decisions

• RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5M player option with $1M buyout**

2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533M
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533M

* Mets are responsible for $31.3M of Verlander’s $43.333M salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical

Arbitration-eligible players

• Framber Valdez (4.163): $12.1M
• Kyle Tucker (4.079): $12.6M
• José Urquidy (4.049): $3.5M
• Mauricio Dubón (3.162): $3.1M
• Luis Garcia (3.083): $2.1M
• Bryan Abreu (3.022): $2M
• Chas McCormick (3.000): $3.1M

Non-tender candidates: None

Free agents

• Martín Maldonado, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Brantley

The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.

Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.

It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.

While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5M player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.

Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.

That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multiyear pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.

The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.

Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.

This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, but he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.

Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5M salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.

The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front-office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.

Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.

Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, but it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true No. 2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.

Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.

Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.

The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free-agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155M in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5M salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193M before considering outside additions.

That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188M; they entered this year in the $180M range.

Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top-five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.

The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75M on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5M.

That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.

Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151M extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.

The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.