Rangers giving righthander Jon Gray four-year, $56M deal

The Rangers are nearing yet another notable free agent signing Sunday, as Texas has agreed to a deal with right-hander Jon Gray. Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News was the first to report (via Twitter) that Texas was “closing in on final details” on a contract with Gray, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that an agreement had been reached. Gray will receive $56 million over four years, as per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, and the deal will be official pending a physical. Gray is represented by CAA Sports.

After signing Marcus Semien to a huge seven-year, $175 million deal and then adding Kole Calhoun to the outfield on another free-agent deal, Texas has now addressed its pitching staff with another veteran addition. The Rangers emerged as a suitor for Gray a few days ago, and the Rangers beat out the division rival Angels, as well as the Tigers and Mets as teams known to have interest in signing the 30-year-old.

The four-year, $56 million pact exactly matches MLBTR’s projection for Gray, who ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. The Rangers’ offer was also north of the three-year extension offer the Rockies reportedly made Gray before the end of the season, which was said to be somewhere around $35 million to $40 million in value. While Gray got only a bit more extra in average annual value, he’ll also gain an extra year of security, and also will now get to pitch in a more hurler-friendly venue than Coors Field.

The third pick of the 2013 draft, Gray has spent his entire MLB career with Coors Field as his home ballpark, and for the most part has acquitted himself a lot better than most at the notoriously hitter-friendly stadium. Gray has a career 4.54 ERA in home games, with that number inflated by some rough outings over the smaller sample size of 45 1/3 innings over the 2015 and 2020 seasons. While Gray also has a 4.65 ERA over 412 2/3 career innings in road games, several players (both pitchers and hitters) have talked about how playing in Denver’s thin air affects adjustments throughout an entire season, so getting out of Coors Field entirely could allow Gray to unlock a new level of performance.

Several rival teams have long speculated that Gray’s stuff would thrive in a more normalized pitching environment, considering what he already showed as a Rockie. Gray has a career 46.7% grounder rate, 23.9% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate over his career, all above-average metrics. The righty’s fastball that has averaged 95.2 mph over his career, and that high-velo heater is augmented by an above-average spin rate on his curveball.

Focusing on Gray’s positives while attributing his negatives only to Coors Field isn’t wise, however, as there are some concerns about whether or not he can be a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher. He has given up quite a bit of hard contact over his career and his fastball (while quick) is lacking in spin rate.  Injuries have also been a factor — Gray tossed only 39 innings in 2020 due to shoulder inflammation, and he missed time this year with a flexor strain and forearm tightness, although those two IL stints only totaled roughly a month.

The Rangers are making a $56 million bet that Gray’s best is yet to come, and it’s a risk Texas can afford to take considering how much money Texas is reportedly willing to spend on payroll this winter. Between Gray, Semien and Calhoun, the Rangers have added $44.2 million in average annual value to next year’s payroll alone, which might represent less than half of the Rangers' work if they really are prepared to top last year’s mark by $100 million.

Gray immediately becomes the most experienced arm in a Rangers rotation that features Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Glenn Otto and A.J. Alexy all in the mix for starting jobs. Dunning and Hearn seem like the only members of that group who are assured of rotation spots, and while Texas won’t sideline all of its younger arms with veteran, there is certainly still room for another notable addition or two beyond Gray.

Beyond the money, Gray doesn’t cost the Rangers anything further in terms of compensation, as the Rockies didn’t issue him a qualifying offer. While there was some expectation that Gray might have taken the one-year, $18.4 million contract if Colorado had made it, the amount of interest in his services makes that scenario seem a little unlikely in hindsight. If Gray had accepted, the Rockies would have still retained a pitcher they had obvious interest in keeping, even if at a higher price point than they would have preferred. Without the QO involved, however, the Rockies now don’t receive any draft-pick compensation for Gray’s departure.