Salary cap deep dive for the Nashville Predators

Novak is one of the more intriguing pending UFAs in this group.  This time a year ago, he was a fringe NHL player and he even spent 25 games in the minors a year ago.  However, he was extremely productive with Nashville, recording 17 goals and 26 assists in just 51 games.  Considering his past and the fact he was up and down through the first half of last year, Novak opted to take a guaranteed one-way offer, a move that likely left money on the table considering how he finished the year.  Even if he winds up with 43 points over a full season instead of 60 percent of one, he’s well-positioned to earn a sizable raise when he puts pen to paper on his next deal.  There’s a good chance the starting salary on it will beat his career earnings.

Smith was a full-time NHLer for the first time last season after a productive campaign with AHL Milwaukee the year before.  With nearly 200 hits in 69 games, he’s the type of energetic forward that teams often like on the fourth line.  If he can lock down a regular role again this year, he could push for a seven-figure deal next summer.  Jankowski, Sherwood, and McCarron will all be in the mix in training camp but even if they can secure a regular role, their respective histories suggest that they’re likely to continue to hover around the minimum salary moving forward.

Barrie had one of the best statistical seasons of his career last year with 55 points in 85 (yes, 85) games between Edmonton and Nashville.  However, his defensive struggles have hampered him in his previous times through free agency and it seems likely that will happen again.  A deal around this one is certainly possible but getting much more will be difficult.  After a breakout year in 2021-22, Carrier struggled last season both in terms of performance and injury-wise.  He was a top-four piece in 2021-22 but more of a third-pairing one last year.  If he’s the former in 2023-24, he’ll be in line for at least a small raise.  If he’s the latter, he should expect a drop closer to the $1M range.  Fabbro’s future in Nashville has been subject to speculation in recent years as he has stagnated from a development perspective.  His ATOI went to a four-year low last season while his offensive production was cut in half.  This deal feels like it could be a last-chance opportunity and if he doesn’t rebound under new head coach Andrew Brunette, he’s quite likely going to be in trade speculation once again.

Lankinen didn’t see a lot of action last season, making just 18 starts.  However, his save percentage of .916 was well above the league average which earned him a small raise to stick around.  Lankinen still only has 88 career NHL appearances under his belt which limits his earnings upside but another season like 2022-23 could put him in a spot where another small raise should be achievable.

Signed through 2024-25

F Cody Glass ($2.5M, RFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($3.185M, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($5M, UFA)

Last season saw Nyquist deal with a shoulder injury that ended his regular season early while he wasn’t able to produce at the level he was accustomed to before then.  He did put forth a strong playoff showing with Minnesota but the market wasn’t kind to many wingers this summer.  This price point is certainly reasonable for a middle-six winger and if he rebounds offensively, it will become a team-friendly deal.  After struggling the previous few seasons, Glass made some big strides last season, setting career highs across the board while establishing himself as an every-game regular.  He’s not at the level his original draft slot might suggest but now he looks like at least a capable part of Nashville’s secondary core moving forward.  This deal amounts to a second bridge contract, giving both sides more time to assess things; he’ll have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025.

It wasn’t that long ago that there were questions about Saros’ ability to hold up as a starter.  It’s safe to say those have long been dealt with as he was once again one of the top goalies league-wide last season while playing the most minutes for the second year in a row.  Being undersized will scare some teams off if he makes it to the open market in 2025 but if he has two more years like this before getting there, Saros should find himself closer to the upper end of the salary scale for netminders.  Probably not right at the top but an extra couple million per season (if not a bit more) should be achievable.  That would put him in the top handful of goaltenders across the league which, based on his recent play, is exactly where he should be.

Signed through 2025-26

D Jeremy Lauzon ($2M, UFA)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75M, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($2.75M, UFA)
F Colton Sissons ($2.875M, UFA)

Sissons’ deal has always been a strange one as the Preds inked him to a seven-year deal back in 2019 hoping his offense would come around.  It didn’t for a while but has been a bit better the last couple of seasons, hovering around the 30-point mark.  That, coupled with his two-way game, has given Nashville a decent return the last couple of years.

McDonagh came over as a salary dump from Tampa Bay but is still capable of playing top-four minutes for now.  Unfortunately for the Predators, his offensive output has fallen off the last few years which makes this a negative-value contract.  They’re able to absorb it without too much issue right now, however.  Schenn had a good showing with Vancouver and Toronto last season, making him one of the more sought-after blueliners this summer.  He’s best used on the third pairing which makes this an overpay relative to his role but with their current cap space, they can afford it.  Lauzon’s deal was an odd one as his play to that point wasn’t worth the cap hit.  Poile was hoping the 26-year-old had another gear to get to.  If he can over the next few years, this will hold up nicely but if he remains a third-pairing depth option, it’s another overpayment.

Signed through 2026-27 or longer

F Filip Forsberg ($8.5M through 2029-30)
D Roman Josi ($9.059M through 2027-28)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($4.5M through 2026-27)

Some regression was expected from Forsberg after his career year in 2021-22 and while that happened, he was still producing at a pretty good rate (42 points in 50 games) before his season ended two months early due to an upper-body injury.  This deal feels like one that is always going to be at least a little above-market but former GM David Poile still gave it to him to ensure a key winger would be in the fold for the long haul.  It’s a small overpayment they can afford.  O’Reilly’s addition was an odd one after it looked like they were selling when they moved on from their former top two middlemen.  The term is a bit long but even if he settles into a second-line role by the time it expires, it should hold up relatively well.

Josi signed this contract as an extension in 2019 and then went on to win the Norris Trophy that same season.  In the three years he has played on this deal, the 33-year-old has provided a solid return so far, averaging nearly a point per game while averaging over 25 minutes a night.  He’s unlikely to maintain that by the end of the contract so the last couple of years could be problematic but for now, they’re paying him like a high-end elite defenseman and he’s playing like one.

Buyouts

F Matt Duchene ($2.556M in 2023-24, $5.556M in 2024-25, $6.556MM in 2025-26, $1.556M from 2026-27 through 2028-29)
F Kyle Turris ($2M through 2027-28)

Retained salary transactions

D Mattias Ekholm ($250K through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($4MM through 2024-25)

Still to sign

None

Best Value: Novak
Worst Value: McDonagh

Looking ahead

As a result of Nashville’s significant churning of its old veteran core, GM Barry Trotz now finds himself with a pretty clean slate to work with (even with all the dead cap they have).  They have ample cap room to add this season, either to add some pieces if they’re in the mix at the trade deadline or to act as a facilitator by taking on an unwanted contract along with some additional pieces for the future.

They have roughly $60M in commitments for 2024-25 but just 10 players signed.  Beyond Barrie, most of the expiring deals aren’t big-ticket ones so it will be a matter of picking a few to bring back and then bringing in replacements for the others from there.  Trotz has already put his stamp on the team this summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar level of turnover (in quantity, not necessarily quality) next summer.