2023 offseason preview for the Chicago Bulls

Chicago has a couple great players (LaVine and DeRozan), an All-Defensive first-team guard (Caruso) and some young talent. Still, it feels like the Bulls are stuck in no-man’s land.

A big part of that is due to Ball’s balky knee and there’s still no timetable for his return – it’s even possible his career could be over. It has been a brutal series of events, because Ball is a very good two-way player. The Bulls have gone just 59-65 since he was injured – a large sample size of blah play.

Having a $20.5M cap hit on your books – and a $21.4M player option for 2024-25 that Ball will almost certainly exercise – for a player who might not take the court for a second consecutive season really hurts your team’s flexibility. It’s no one’s fault, either. Sure, Ball had injuries in the past, but nothing like this.

The Nikola Vucevic trade was an unmitigated disaster, but the Bulls don’t have a viable way to replace the impending free agent’s production. It feels like they need to extend him, re-sign him or at least explore sign-and-trade scenarios. They can’t just lose him for nothing. He played well in 2022-23 after a down year in 2021-22, but he is also limited defensively and will be 33 years old at the start of next season.

That deal is why the Bulls don’t have a lottery pick in June’s draft — it landed 11th overall in the lottery and will be sent to the Orlando Magic to complete the trade (they additionally gave up Wendell Carter and their 2021 first-round pick, which turned into Franz Wagner – ouch). Chicago also doesn’t control its second-rounder (via the Denver Nuggets) due to its free agency gun-jumping when the team completed its sign-and-trade for Ball.

With nearly $112M committed to just six players and a couple of $3.4M player options (Andre Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr.), becoming a cap room team doesn’t make sense. Even if Drummond and Jones opt out, the Bulls would only be able to create about $16M in space. They would be better off re-signing some of their own free agents and using their $12.2M non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but they can’t just bring back the same core roster again and expect different results.

DeRozan turns 34 years old this summer, is entering the final year of his contract and will be eligible for a veteran extension. That makes him a logical trade candidate, but his age, expiring deal, subpar defense and well-documented playoff struggles somewhat limit his market value.

Don’t get me wrong, I have a ton of respect for DeRozan. You can tell he puts hard work into his craft and he has improved tremendously throughout his career. I’m just not sure how much the Bulls could realistically get for him if they made him available for trade – maybe a late lottery pick, matching salaries and a decent young player? That’s nothing to sneeze at, but such a move could take a while to translate into wins.

LaVine would have far more trade value. He is only 28 years old and is under contract for four more years (the last year is a player option). The New york Knicks are a logical suitor on this front and reportedly talked to the Bulls about him ahead of the February trade deadline.

Do the Bulls want to trade the player they tried to build around? Do the Knicks want to trade multiple first-round picks and young players for a star who is a legitimately great shooter and scorer – they do need both of those things – but isn’t a great defender or decision-maker?

I don’t know the answer to either of those questions, but I do know Chicago’s current roster isn’t good enough to contend for a title and isn’t bad enough to land a top draft pick. The Bulls have to pick a path.

There is nothing preventing the Bulls from trading both of their stars and starting from scratch. They could always prioritize young players over draft capital if they want to retool, rather than embarking on a full-fledged rebuild. Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well – the defensive stalwart drew plenty of interest leading up to the trade deadline and is on a team-friendly contract through 2024-25. He could have quite a bit of value.

Aside from the big-picture roster questions, forward Patrick Williams will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer. I would be a little surprised if a deal gets done. While Williams has real upside, he has also been very inconsistent (which is normal for a young player). I suspect there might be a gap in what his agents are looking for and what the team wants to pay.

That said, I would not trade Williams if I were running the Bulls. He could be special if he figures it out. And even if he doesn’t, he would still be coveted due to his two-way skill set. I’d also re-sign Coby White, who is a restricted free agent – I think he’ll get somewhere around the mid-level exception, and he’s improved from his first couple seasons.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

• Zach LaVine ($40,064,220)
• DeMar DeRozan ($28,600,000)
• Lonzo Ball ($20,465,117)
• Patrick Williams ($9,835,881)
• Alex Caruso ($9,460,000)
• Dalen Terry ($3,350,760)
• Justin Lewis (two-way)
• Total: $111,775,978

Dead/Retained Salary

• None

Player Options

• Andre Drummond ($3,360,000): Non-Bird rights
• Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,360,000): Bird rights
  • Note: Jones has said he plans to exercise his option.
• Total: $6,720,000

Team Options

• None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Carlik Jones ($1,927,896)
  • Note: Jones would receive a partial guarantee ($250K) if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the 2023/24 regular season.
     
• Marko Simonovic ($1,836,096)
  • Note: Simonovic’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7.
• Total: $3,763,992

Restricted Free Agents

• Coby White ($7,744,600 qualifying offer / $22,241,865 cap hold): Bird rights
• Ayo Dosunmu ($5,216,324 qualifying offer / $5,216,324 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $27,458,189

Two-Way Free Agents

• Terry Taylor: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

• None

Extension-Eligible Players

• Lonzo Ball (veteran)
• Alex Caruso (veteran)
• DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
• Marko Simonovic (veteran)
• Patrick Williams (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Nikola Vucevic ($33,000,000 cap hold): Bird rights
• Javonte Green ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
• Patrick Beverley ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Matt Thomas ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $38,969,094

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
• Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Bulls would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.