Bucs Should Keep WR Gage For Year 2

The team could cut Gage, eat his $5,000,000 in guaranteed base salary along with the $4,333,334 in prorated bonus and could net the Bucs $2,833, 332 in savings. But if they do that, they will still have to replace him on the roster. Take another $750,000 off of that savings for even a rookie on a league minimum deal and you are looking at just a hair over $2 million in savings.

Or the Bucs could retain Gage and free up cap space by converting all or part of his salary into a prorated bonus and free up to $7,136,000 in salary cap space. With a lot of discussion currently being bandied about regarding the choice to sign Gage originally, his production in 2022 relative to his contract, and what to do going forward, I thought it would be important to create some context around the past while making the argument the team should retain Gage for 2023.

A Look Back At Why The Bucs Signed Gage in 2022

Before we get straight into the “The Bucs overspent for a number three wide receiver” it is important to note why the team signed him in the first place. Yes, the hopes were that Gage would be the team’s third receiver option. But that was far from the accepted reality when they inked him to a three-year $30 million deal back in March. At that point Bucs starting receiver Chris Godwin was still only three months removed from a torn anterior cruciate ligament. There was no guarantee that Godwin would be ready for week one, or week six for that matter, of the 2023 campaign.

The Bucs were a team with Super Bowl aspirations that at the time were without guaranteed returns of two of their four primary options from 2022. Godwin was an uncertainty due to the knee injury. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was contemplating a potential, and eventual retirement. And receiver Antonio Brown was never going to return to the team due to self-destructive behavior. That left the cupboard relatively bare.

After Mike Evans, the Bucs were facing a depth chart that would have featured Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson. Both of those players had endeared themselves to fans through some post-season heroics in 2020. Miller made a late second quarter touchdown grab against the Packers in the NFC Championship and Johnson had a memorable sideline grab against the Saints the week prior in the Divisional round. However, neither player had proven to that point (or since for that matter) that they could be relied on down-to-down to help the Bucs offense move successfully.

Enter Gage and his $10 million annual average value. Gage was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the 15th best receiver on the market that off-season. They projected a four-year contract for Gage worth $34 million with $20 million guaranteed. That would have put his AAV at $8.5 million. That’s an overpay right? Well, yes and no.

By strict definition, sure it is. But keep in mind the context of the overall wide receiver market last year. Of all the receivers projected by PFF that received multi-year deals, the AAV the average contract had an AAV 13% higher than the projection. That’s in-line with the 18% premium the Bucs paid on Gage’s projection. The fact is the wide receiver market ballooned last offseason, and Gage like most receivers benefited.

Gage Wasn’t Overpaid Compared To Other Free Agent Receivers

Now onto the oft-cited argument that Gage was an overpay for a number three receiver. Again, I will point you to the fact that when he was signed there was no guarantee he would be a number three to start the season. Gage’s contract reflects the ceiling AND the floor of what the team needed him to be.

At the floor, yes, he would be a number three when Godwin returned to the lineup. But in the meantime, they also needed someone who had proven they could be a good number two receiver in case Godwin suffered any setbacks in his recovery. Thus, Gage’s AAV was reflective of both of those roles.

Take a look at the other receiver contracts from the 2022 off-season and you will see Gage’s sets right in the middle of the number two/number three tiers. Allen Robinson’s $15.5M AAV was for him to be a number two. Michael Gallup’s $11.5M was for the same role in Dallas. Cedrick Wilson got a $7.35M AAv to be the number three in Dallas, while Zay Jones received an $8M AAV to be a three with the Jaguars.

A look at two other receivers who’s AAV’s were most similar to Gage’s will bear out similar roles. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and D.J. Chark each received identical $10M AAV’s to occupy similar roles as guys who could be a number two, but would eventually settle into number three roles if other receivers on their teams overcame injury concerns. Chark would operate behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and eventual draft pick Jameson Williams who was also coming off of a torn ACL. Meanwhile, Valdes Scantling would be in a quasi 2/3 role with fellow free agent JuJu Smith Schuster.

Gage’s production over the course of his tenure with Atlanta showed he was capable of such a role. He was a reliable third option behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in 2019 amassing 49 catches for 446 yards and a touchdown. Then over the course of the following two years he proved capable of being a solid secondary piece behind Ridley after Jones started to succumb to injury before eventually being traded following the 2019 season. In the two years leading up to his free agency, Gage 138 of his 203 targets for 1,556 yards and eight touchdowns. He also played in 56 of a possible 61 games over his four years in Atlanta, so injury concerns were minimal.

Gage Had Disappointing Season For Bucs

That brings us to 2022 and the high hopes the Bucs and their fans had for Gage. By any objective measure the season was a disappointment for Gage. He set a three year low for games played, targets, catches and yards as well as a career low in yards per reception. The one bright spot was the five touchdowns he hauled in, which was a career high. But peel back the curtain and you can still see the basis for a quality receiver. Yes, his yards per reception of 8.4 was 2.3 yards below his previous career average. However, it is important to note that his average depth of target was 3.1 yards lower, indicating that the Bucs were using him much different than he was previously used.

His yards after catch average of 3.5 was very close to his 3.7 career average. His separation marks were very similar to years prior as well. In 2022, Gage averaged 3.3 yards of separation per catch. In 2021 that mark was 3.1, and in 2021 it was 2.8. And this was as he played through an injury most of the season.

Gage Was Most Reliable Option For The Bucs Needs

Now many fans have clamored that for the price paid Gage was not worth his contract, especially considering the aforementioned in-house options of Johnson and Miller. The problem is neither one of those players had the slot plus outside skillsets needed to potentially replace Godwin to begin the season. In the 2022 version of the Bucs offense Godwin was a hybrid Y/Z receiver moving into and out of the slot. Miller did not have the size or route versatility to operate in the slot in that offense and Johnson had not shown the ability to gain separation on the outside.

In addition, Johnson had a propensity to not be on the same page as Brady on choice/option routes in late 2021 when he had to operate in that role following Godwin’s knee injury. Given the needs of the role the Bucs were looking to fill Gage was a much better option than any of the teams in house options to be the stop gap in case Godwin needed to miss the beginning of the season.

And for those who want to cite Miller’s 2020 season when he was fully healthy as a more productive campaign than Gage’s 2022, you would be right. But why do you get to compare one player’s healthiest season with another players least healthy? If you want to use the 2020 version of Miller (when he had 33 catches for 501 yards with three touchdowns), then you would need to create a similar scenario for Gage, who’s 2020 and 2021 campaigns eclipse.

Making The Case For Gage To Remain On The Bucs in 2023

First off, as I detailed here, the Bucs have quite a few avenues to open up cap space in 2023 without having to cut Gage. Plus, the savings from cutting him are fairly minimal unless they opt to execute the release with a post-June 1st designation (in which case the Bucs would save $5,000,000 in 2023 and incur a dead cap hit 0f $2,166,668 in 2024). Secondly, without Gage the Bucs receiving core is once again very thin. Under contract for 2023 currently besides him is Mike Evans, Godwin, and undrafted free agent Deven Thompkins, who has shown very limited flashes.

The biggest value that Gage provides for the Bucs in 2023 under a new offensive coordinator is the flexibility to allow Godwin to move back to the outside more. With each passing year since the arrival of former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich Godwin’s percentage of snaps in the slot has risen. It started with him logging a then career-high 63.4% of snaps in the slot in 2019, steadily increasing with each passing year to a now career-high of 72.9% in 2022.

Gage has proven he can be a good slot receiver in Atlanta, where he logged over 67% of his snaps in 2019 and 2020. He also has shown he can play outside from his final year in Atlanta as well as this past year. Gage gives a new offensive coordinator the ability to move those two in and out of the slot as they see fit.

As for the potential cap savings of cutting Gage. I already outlined that the team can save more on a potential max restructure, but that would increase his cap hit in 2024 and create dead cap in 2025. If they wanted to simply free up similar amounts as cutting him, the Bucs could go with a smaller restructure that would not hamper them that much in future years. If Tampa Bay wanted to save the equivalent of the $2.83M of doing a pre-June 1st cut, they could simply take $4.3M of his 2023 salary and convert it into a prorated bonus over four years. This would reduce his cap figure in 2023 by $2,866,667.

The resulting changes to 2024 and beyond would still allow the team to move off if they saw fit. His 2024 cap hit would go up from $12,166,668 to $13,241,668. It would create a 2025 dead cap hit of just $2.15M and if the team wanted to move on prior to the 2024 season they could get out of the contract with just a $5,391,668 dead cap charge while still saving $4,608,332.

Conversely if the team was looking to save the $5M of a post-June 1st cut they could do something similar with some slight adjustments. The salary conversion would bump up to $6M in this scenario. It would save $4,950,000 off of 2023’s salary cap while increasing 2024 to $13,816,668 and creating a $3.3M dead cap hit in 2025. The Bucs could still let Gage go next year and save $2,833,332 if they wanted.

In what could be the start of a rebuilding year the idea of a “total tear down” can seem enticing to those who want to get back to the championship window as quickly as possible. But moving on from Russell Gage, doesn’t accelerate that window, doesn’t offer much in the way of cap savings, and doesn’t net the team any additional assets. All it does is take a player who has shown a track record of being good off the roster and force the Bucs to replace him with a likely unknown quantity. It diminishes the quality on the field with no discernible benefit. In short it just does not make much sense.