Predicting When Phillies Andrew Painter Will Debut

Philadelphia Phillies top pitching prospect Andrew Painter is expected to debut in July. Painter has been expected to arrive in July for some time. However, the Phillies have recently provided more details on when this might specifically happen. Phillies manager Rob Thomson recently told Paul Casella of MLB.com that Painter will be completely shut down during the July 14-17 All-Star break. Thomson also told reporters that the team does not expect Painter to arrive in the majors before then. Painter will likely make his MLB debut between July 18 and July 30, unless something changes.

Painter has a 2-3 record with a 3.90 ERA in nine minor league starts this season. The pitcher has a 4.46 FIP, along with a 3.08 K/BB ratio. Painter has a 15.6% HR/FB allowed rate and a 1.39 HR/9 allowed rate this year. Opposing batters have a .238 average and a .298 BABIP against Painter this season. Painter has made five starts in Triple-A after starting the year making four Low-A starts. Furthermore, Painter has a 2-1 record with a 3.86 ERA in 21 innings. Painter has a 4.62 FIP and a 2.27 K/BB rate in Triple-A. So far this season, Painter has pitched 32 1/3 innings across those nine minor league starts. Painter pitched in the Arizona Fall League this past offseason as well.

When Painter Might Make His MLB Debut

Workload Considerations

Painter has not pitched more than five innings in a game this season. Two games have seen Painter pitch five innings. Additionally, Painter has not faced more than 21 batters in an outing yet. Painter is in line to make five starts before the All-Star break. This assumes the team keeps Painter on his current Wednesday schedule. Painter would be in line to pitch roughly 25 to 30 innings in that span. That would put his season total around 60 innings pitched, leading up to his debut. Painter is on an innings limit, though the exact number is unknown.

Rotation And Roster Considerations

The Phillies already have a strong starting rotation, which complicates matters. Ranger Suárez is a free agent after this season. Suárez could be moved to the bullpen, but that is unlikely. The Phillies could go to a six-man rotation when Painter is ready to debut. However, Zack Wheeler is not a fan of this option. Wheeler prefers to pitch on normal rest. Rosters do not expand to 28 until September 1, which should also be taken into consideration. A six-man rotation would leave the Phillies with seven relief pitchers instead of eight. Clearing a 40-man roster spot might be needed as well.

Schedule Considerations

Painter will likely make his MLB debut on July 21 against the Boston Red Sox. This option allows the Phillies to give Painter extra rest without having to go to a six-man rotation. Painter would have five days off between starts one and two as well as starts two and three and starts three and four. In this scenario, Painter would start on July 27, then start on August 2 and August 7. Painter would then have to start on four days’ rest, or the Phillies go to a six-man rotation. The team does not have an off day between August 8 and August 20.